THANKSGIVING AM: Refresh for chart and more analysis It’s theatrical forever for Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which is coming in ahead of yesterday afternoon’s estimates with $10M, but not so much for the studio’s animated movie Strange World which did $4.2M. This will translate per industry estimates into a 3-day and 5 day of $43M and $55M-$60M for Wakanda Forever, and a disastrous 3 and 5 day of $15.8M and $20M-$23M for Strange World which cost a reported $135M. That’s not the worst for a Disney animated, particularly over Thanksgiving, but it’s close: Their $140M original animation movie Treasure Planet was in freefall back in 2003 with a 3-day of $12M and $16.5M. One former Disney exec once told me, “They’re very good at making the best worst case decision” and in the scenario of Strange World, that’s sending it to Disney+ by the holidays. Even though the pic is tanking in theaters, that type of big screen release will at least give it some mojo in ancillaries. Everybody remember as theatrical tries to finds its footing, especially among adult titles.
Speaking of adult titles, while Sony and Black Label Media’s Devotion per public box office reporting is seeing $1.8M from yesterday at 3,405 theaters, and $10.2M for the 5-day and 3-day of $6.1M, however, industry sources tells us Netflix’s sneak preview of release of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is killing off all adult competition, and it’s only in 638 theaters. We hear Wednesday was very close to $2M, with the 3-day and 5 day projected out to $8.5M and $12.3M, which is amazing for adult counterprogramming right now. We’ll update you if Netflix reports numbers. If the Rian Johnson directed, Ram Bergman produced whodunnit sequel arrives at the high end, that’s a massive $19,2K theater average and proof adults still want to go to the movies. As we told you previously, particularly as many of these films post single digits, they’re too nichey, hence their lower ticket sales. Any development executive wrecking their head over what works right now on the big screen among older adults, go splash some cold water on your face and remember last year’s starry package from Ridley Scott, House of Gucci with Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Jared Leto and Al Pacino. That movie, when there were more concerns about Covid, posted a $14.4M 3-day and $22M 5-day. Just a refresher on the type of films which get adults out.
Knives Out 2 is burying such adult fare as ($1.1M Wednesday, $5M second weekend and $7M 5-day), Bones and All ($921K Wed, $2.4M 3-day and $3.9M 5-day) and Universal’s expansion of Amblin’s The Fabelmans which did $400K at 638 theaters for a forecasted $2.2M 3-day and $3M 5-day. On the high-end, the Steven Spielberg directed movie will wind up with $4,7K theater average.
And get this iSpot shows that Netflix spent less than the majors to open Glass Onion at $4.3M to Disney’s $16M on Strange…